Subj : ARRL Propagation Bulletin To : All From : Daryl Stout Date : Fri Mar 04 2022 08:26:14 SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009 ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP09 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 4, 2022 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP009 ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity was weaker this reporting week (February 24 through March 2) with average daily sunspot numbers weakening from 54.3 to 44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5. Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6. Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4, 108 on March 5-7, then 106, 104 and 100 on March 8-10, 99 on March 11-13, 98 on March 14, 95 on March 15-16, then 96, 97, 98 and 99 on March 17-20, 100 on March 21-22, then 101 and 100 on March 23-24, 102 on March 25-26, then 99 and 102 on March 27-28, 105 on March 29-31, 102 on April 1-2, 101 on April 3-4, then 100 on April 5-6, and 99 on April 7-9. Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4-6, 10 on March 7, 5 on March 8-10, then 10, 12, 8, 5 and 8 on March 11-15, 5 on March 16-17, 10 on March 18, 15 on March 19-21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5 and 10 on March 25-26, 12 on March 27-28, 8 on March 29-30, 12 on March 31, 15 on April 1-2, then 5 on April 3-6, then 18, 15 and 8 on April 7-9. Here is the weekly commentary from OK1HH: "The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might have surprised us if it were not for the information about the increased eruptive activity on the far side of the Sun. The farside sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft, starting with the huge farside explosion, when the spacecraft recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the late hours of 15 February. "One day later Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we experienced only occasional eruptions of class C. "The Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly and attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for shortwave propagation began to improve in early March, but this was mainly due to seasonal changes." Here is a link to see a new telescope: https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6 Check out the Solar Orbiter from European Space Agency: https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2: "Wow! "10 Meters Long Path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing today! "I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143Z when I first checked band conditions. "Operating on FT8 from Grid FN32, between 1310 GMT to 1348 GMT using FT8. During the opening I worked: BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC, VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI, and 12 other stations in Japan. "Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is again, WOW!" See stunning loops of plasma: https://bit.ly/35OpX0V Here is information about the termination event: https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU This is from a 2020 paper on "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number," and now the paper's authors have announced the termination event between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 has arrived: https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net . For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins . Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 2, 2022 were 23, 22, 22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3, 96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.6. NNNN /EX --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33) .