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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
US officials expect Israel’s counterattack on Iran will come before
US Election Day
By MJ Lee and Kevin Liptak, CNN
Updated:
7:51 AM EDT, Wed October 16, 2024
Source: CNN
American officials expect for its attack earlier this month before
November 5, sources tell CNN, a timeline that would thrust the growing
volatility in the Middle East squarely into public view within days of
the American presidential election.
The timeline and parameters of Israel’s retaliation against Iran
inside Israel’s government and are not directly related to the timing
of the US election, the sources said.
Still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — described by senior US
administration officials as a political animal deeply attuned to
American politics — appears highly sensitive to any potential
political ramifications of Israel’s actions in the US, they said.
The growing conflict in the Middle East has emerged as a persistent
issue in the American election. , and by extension Vice President
Kamala Harris, have faced pressure from progressives for their handling
of the situation. Meanwhile, Republicans, including former President
Donald Trump, have accused the administration of bungling the crisis,
sending the world into chaos.
As the election nears, the administration has begun applying new
pressure on Israel to improve humanitarian conditions inside Gaza. In a
, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
warned Israel a failure to deliver more aid to the enclave could
trigger a cutoff of military assistance.
But in a sign of the fraught political dynamics, the letter was not
signed from the president or the vice president, neither of whom has
publicly threatened to cut off aid to Israel, despite pressure from the
left. Its deadline for allowing more humanitarian aid into Gaza falls
after the election. And the warning came the same week an advanced US
air defense system arrived in Israel to held defend the country against
Iranian attacks.
How the conflict unfolds in the three weeks before Election Day remains
one of the biggest uncertainties for the two presidential campaigns.
While not a top-tier issue for many voters, the crisis has complicated
Harris’ efforts to win Michigan, a state with a major concentration
of Arab-American voters. She is campaigning in the state three days
this week.
Strike could upend race
For Biden and Harris, an outbreak of a wider regional conflict would
pose an unwelcome development on an issue that has already caused them
major political headaches.
Netanyahu is acutely aware of how a potential counterstrike could
reshape the presidential race, according to assessments from some US
officials, adding a layer of complexity to the ongoing diplomacy
between the two nations over the last several months.
Biden, in the wake of Iran’s missile attack earlier this month, did
not try to dissuade Netanyahu from responding forcefully. But mindful
of the prospects of all-out war or spiking oil prices on the
presidential race, he and his team have worked to encourage a measured
reprisal.
Biden administration officials have been notably tight-lipped about
both the timing and targets of Israel’s forthcoming counterstrike
after Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state
earlier this month.
Netanyahu informed Biden last week that Israel does not intend to go
after Iran’s nuclear or oil sites during this round of retaliation, ,
a message that was received with relief inside the White House. Biden
had Israel to avoid those targets.
In a statement, Netanyahu’s office said, “We listen to the opinions
of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our
national interests,” an indication that despite whatever assurances
he offered Biden, the scope of Israel’s response could be different
than what the White House has encouraged.
It is not known whether Israel’s attacks on Iran would be limited to
physical targeting of military assets or also include a cyber warfare
component. US officials will be closely monitoring not only its
ally’s counterattack but the response it will elicit from Iran, as
the Biden administration hopes to avoid another full-fledged war from
breaking out in the Middle East.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, White House spokesman John Kirby said
“there’s little doubt that the Iranians know how seriously” the
US takes its commitment to Israel’s right to self-defense.
“But I don’t think it’d be useful for me, one way or another, to
get into the specifics of the diplomacy,” Kirby said, as he declined
to comment on ways in which US officials may have been working to try
to shape Israel’s eventual response to Iran.
Biden has urged measured response
Yet in many ways, those efforts have played out publicly. Biden,
speaking to reporters on several occasions earlier this month, urged a
measured response, and suggested he was conveying those views to Israel
directly.
In a telephone conversation last week, Biden and Netanyahu held a
“direct” conversation about the plans for responding to Iran,
according to the White House. Harris also joined the classified call,
describing it later as an “important” discussion.
American officials were extraordinarily tight-tipped about the two
leaders’ conversation. Previous calls between the men have grown
tense as Biden confronted what he regarded as a lack of cooperation
from Netanyahu on securing an end to the war.
Biden has grown frustrated that Netanyahu appears to brush off his
advice and recommendations, and to publicly reject his attempts at
lowering regional temperatures. Some American officials have privately
speculated the Israeli leader is looking to boost Trump in the weeks
ahead of November’s election.
Yet until this week, Biden had stopped well short of threatening to
condition American assistance to Israel on efforts to improve
humanitarian conditions.
In their letter, sent Sunday, Blinken and Austin said they were writing
“to underscore the U.S. government’s deep concern over the
deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, and seek urgent and
sustained actions by your government this month to reverse this
trajectory,” laying out a number of benchmarks the country must
meet, including allowing at least 350 aid trucks per day into Gaza.
Though it wasn’t signed by Biden, the letter reflected the
president’s previous efforts, according to White House aides.
“This is not an initiative that the President was at all surprised
by,” Kirby told reporters Tuesday. “It very much in keeping with
the communications that he has had with Prime Minister Netanyahu.”
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