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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
Huge fundraising powers Democrats’ hopes to flip the House
By Sarah Ferris, CNN
Updated:
5:48 PM EDT, Wed October 16, 2024
Source: CNN
Rep. Cindy Axne, the last Democrat standing in Iowa, went to her
party’s leadership about a month before the 2022 midterms to ask for
a few hundred thousand more dollars in her race, or risk losing her
seat.
The money didn’t come, according to two people with knowledge of the
discussions, and Axne lost the Des Moines-based seat by around 2,000
votes — one of nearly two dozen close House races that cost
Democrats their majority that year.
Now, that cash crunch is a distant memory and Democrats are in striking
distance of not one, but two red-tinted seats in Iowa. Vice President
Kamala Harris, who, has fueled a fundraising revolution this cycle that
is changing the game for down-ballot Democrats and deeply troubling GOP
leaders. House Democrats are so flush with cash that they are seriously
competing on red-tinted turf in places like Iowa and Wisconsin that
were trending away from the party just a few years ago.
The Democrats’ inroads in the Midwest are on top of the dozen-plus
GOP-held seats in New York and California that were already .
Democrats’ huge summertime war chests have expanded that battlefield
as party leaders seek every possible path to victory. Republicans have
had to buckle down on defense, keeping them from truly competing in
once-feasible places like southwestern Connecticut, the Nevada suburbs
and southeastern Pennsylvania.
“When excitement and energy happens, then the money follows,” said
Christina Bohannan, the Democrat running in the neighboring Iowa
district who has shattered fundraising records in her increasingly
competitive rematch against GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Bohannan
not only outraised Miller-Meeks in the last quarter, but outspent the
GOP incumbent by almost a 3-to-1 margin. And Democrats are planning to
spend even more there in the final weeks.
The GOP is taking the threat seriously: House Speaker Mike Johnson will
head to the district this week, followed by Majority Leader Steve
Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee
Sanders later this month, according to a person familiar with the
planning.
“People are just fired up,” Bohannan, the Democrat, told CNN. “We
had a great message in 2022 but we didn’t have quite as much
resources there to get that message out.”
But money alone won’t determine which party controls Congress. While
Democrats need to net just four seats to flip the House, voters’
focus on issues like the border and the economy means that the
political climate still favors the GOP. And there’s the Trump factor:
Former President Donald Trump continues to do better among Hispanic
voters and working class voters, fueling GOP hopes of flipping seats
near the US-Mexico border and in rural Alaska and Maine.
“There is no candidate in modern history, Democrat or Republican, who
turns out voters more effectively than President Trump,” Rep. Elise
Stefanik of New York, the House Republican Conference chairwoman, told
CNN.
What is certain is that whichever party wins the House battle is almost
guaranteed to face another razor-thin margin — making it all but
impossible to govern for another two years.
Republicans’ cash crunch
In the final three week stretch, Republicans say it’s the
Democrats’ cash advantage that’s keeping them up at night.
Out of the 32 most competitive House seats, all but two Republicans
were outraised by Democrats in the most recent quarter, according to
filings . (The two GOP exceptions were Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans of
Virginia and Rep. Michelle Steel of California.)
All but six of the Democrats broke the $2 million mark, and some pulled
in far more.
In a competitive open seat in central Virginia, the GOP candidate
Derrick Anderson brought in $1.1 million — putting him in the upper
echelon of House Republican fundraisers this year. But the Democrat in
the race, Eugene Vindman, raised an astounding $6.5 million. That
allowed him to outspend his GOP opponent by almost 11 to 1.
Then there is Democrat Will Rollins, with a $3.6 million haul against
long-time Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in southern California, and
Democrat Amish Shah, who’s challenging Arizona GOP Rep. David
Schweikert, who brought in $3.45 million. Both GOP incumbents are now
in more danger than Republicans believe they should be.
Elon Musk’s super PAC recently spent big for Calvert, while Trump
himself stumped for Calvert in the desert town of Coachella,
California, over the weekend.
Rollins described his own fundraising as “higher than we ever thought
imaginable.” And he described Trump’s visit as a last chance move
to save Calvert. But, he predicted: “I don’t think they’re going
to end up having the resources to do it. That’s why I ultimately
think we’re going to win.”
Across the country, senior Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster of New Hampshire
recently drove through Pennsylvania stumping for Democratic candidate
Janelle Stelson, whose fundraising haul tripled that of her GOP
opponent Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chairman.
“It’s insane. It’s like Senate numbers,” said Kuster, who is
retiring this year after 12 years in a New Hampshire swing seat. “I
never had a million dollar quarter. And now all of the candidates are
having million-dollar quarters.”
Top Republicans have been forced to respond: The GOP leadership-aligned
super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, this week announced a $2.6
million buy to help defend Perry in a seat that Trump won by nearly 5
points.
In another “reach” seat, Democrats raised so much against Steel
that Republicans moved money out of a highly competitive open seat in
Orange County to help protect the GOP congresswoman. And the Republican
group is even beginning to spend in an open Colorado seat that Trump
won by 8 points.
A ‘tsunami’ of Democratic dollars
One incumbent, Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, said he could lose his race
because of the “tsunami” of money that Harris and her allies have
dumped into his seat because of its unique status as a stand-alone
electoral vote.
“That’s my number one issue right now, how we’re being outspent
at the top of the ticket,” Bacon said, noting that Harris is spending
$21 million on messaging in his district, compared to about $100,000
from Trump.
“I wish he’d put some stuff on the airwaves, show people why they
need to vote for him. It helps everybody down-ballot,” Bacon said,
adding: “I think the other side holds every ace right now, but
we’re in the fight.”
Two years ago, Bacon’s challenger, state Sen. Tony Vargas. was
outspent 3 to 1 by GOP super PAC groups. This time, Democrats have the
money to keep up.
“Because we have these resources, now we have been able to battle
back,” Vargas told CNN.
While Trump has been focused on his own race, Johnson and his
leadership team — including campaign chief, Rep. Richard Hudson of
North Carolina — have been making urgent pleas to fellow Republicans
for last-minute cash.
But it’s too late to match one key Democratic advantage: The party
went up on TV early in GOP-held seats, forcing Republican outside
groups to respond in those places and narrow their own offensive
opportunities. As a result, GOP groups decided not to compete in
once-competitive turf, such as the seats of Democratic Reps. Angie
Craig in Minnesota, Nikki Budzinski in Illinois, and Hillary Scholten
in Michigan.
“(The money) is definitely sounding the alarm bells,” one senior
House GOP aide told CNN. “It’s been very hard to keep up with. If
we lose seats, I think that will be a defining part of the post
mortem.”
With fewer of his own members on defense, House Minority Leader Hakeem
Jeffries and his party jumped into some long-shot races that would have
been unthinkable earlier this summer. House Majority PAC is now
competing in tougher races like those of Perry in Pennsylvania, Ryan
Zinke in Montana and Monica De La Cruz in Texas.
Zinke himself put out an urgent fundraising call this month, warning
supporters in a text: “If I don’t do a total 180 on the
fundraising front, not only will I lose my House seat, Republicans may
never hold the majority in Congress again.”
Zinke raised $2 million but was still narrowly outraised by his
Democratic challenger, Monica Tranel. Trump won the seat by 7 points
last cycle.
Trump’s strength keeps GOP’s hopes alive
Democrats need to flip several seats in two key states to have a shot
at retaking the House: and California. These roughly dozen seats
are, on paper, friendly to Democrats. Yet troubling signs have emerged.
Stefanik, who is determined to protect the GOP’s hold in New York,
said Trump is so far beating his poll numbers from the last two
elections while Harris is underperforming those of Biden and Hillary
Clinton.
“There’s a reason President Trump is coming to Madison Square
Garden,” Stefanik said. “President Trump is a believer in
Republicans winning New York,”
Republicans privately believe they are likely to lose at least two
incumbents in the blue states: Rep. Brandon Williams in Syracuse and
John Duarte in California’s Central Valley (along with GOP Rep. Lori
Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon, where Trump’s support hasn’t improved.)
Many are also worried about Rep. Mike Garcia of southern California and
Rep. Marc Molinaro in upstate New York.
And Republicans are feeling hopeful about heavily Hispanic seats in
Colorado, New Mexico and Texas, where Trump is helping them go on
offense. Democrats fear Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Colorado is particularly
vulnerable.
Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who represents a slice of the US-Mexico
border in south Texas, said it’s a warning for his party across the
board — including Harris.
“The Democrat Party, they cannot take Hispanic voters for granted,”
Cuellar told CNN. As Democrats have been slow to respond on border
issues, he warned Republicans are “chipping away” at their base of
Hispanic voters.
He added, “In the minds of a lot of voters, they see the Democrats
not being strong on border security and Republicans being strong on
border security. I don’t want to say I told you so, but I used to
say, ‘Guys, this is important.’”
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